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Upshot nytimes election3/16/2024 ![]() ![]() Download the microdata behind this poll.Read more about the methodology for this poll.That’s a measure of how much weighting we are doing to make our respondents resemble all voters. The design effect of this poll is 1.1.Some are delayed longer for technical reasons. Most responses shown here are delayed about 30 minutes.New York 11 Staten Island, southern Brooklyn Pennsylvania 10 South, central Pennsylvania New Jersey 11 Northern New Jersey suburbs. North Carolina 9 Charlotte suburbs, southern N.C. Minnesota 2 Minneapolis suburbs, southern Minn. Other districts where we’ve completed polls California 48 Orange County Here are other common ways to weight a poll: In 2016, many pollsters didn’t weight by education and overestimated Hillary Clinton’s standing as a result. Here, we’re weighting by age, primary vote, gender, likelihood of voting, race, education and region, mainly using data from voting records files compiled by L2, a nonpartisan voter file vendor.īut weighting works only if you weight by the right categories and you know what the composition of the electorate will be. Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to respondents from under-represented groups. Some characteristics are missing or incorrect. People who respond to surveys are almost always too old, too white, too educated and too politically engaged to accurately represent everyone.īased on administrative records. The simplest version assumes we have a perfect random sample of the voting population. The types of people we reachedĮven if we got turnout exactly right, the margin of error wouldn’t capture all of the error in a poll. They don’t represent the full range of possible turnout scenarios, let alone the full range of possible election results. Just because one candidate leads in all of these different turnout scenarios doesn’t mean much by itself. ![]() In these scenarios, higher turnout tends to be better for Republicans. People who say they will vote, adjusted for past levels of truthfulness People who say they are almost certain to vote, and no one else People whose voting history suggests they will vote, regardless of what they say She is also emphasizing health care as an issue. Long has stressed her outsider, unpolitician-like credentials (she includes a recipe for rhubarb jam on her campaign website) and her humble background (her father had a small store where family members worked from a young age). īut the results of Washington’s top-two primary and of private polling indicate that this has emerged as a real race.Herrera Beutler has run well here since winning the seat, and she has broken with her party on some issues, including the health care overhaul. This contest was not expected to be particularly competitive at the beginning of the cycle. The small-town, western part of the district was once reliably Democratic, but it has shifted toward Republicans like other blue-collar parts of the country. suburbs, including Vancouver, Wash., and rural areas in southwestern Washington. 50% favorable rating 29% unfavorable 21% don’t know Jaime Herrera Beutler is the incumbent, first elected in 2010. 38% favorable rating 22% unfavorable 40% don’t know About the raceĬarolyn Long is a political science professor who has never run for office before. The locations shown here are approximate.Įxplore the 2016 election in detail with this interactive map. Davis, Dean Chang, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski, Allison McCartney, Esha Ray and Dagny Salas.To preserve privacy, exact addresses have been concealed. Editing by Wilson Andrews, Felice Belman, William P. ![]() But remember: It’s just one poll, and we talked to only 501 people. Mays, Amelia Nierenberg, Rick Rojas, Dana Rubinstein, Edgar Sandoval, Tracey Tully, Michael Wines and Kate Zernike. Our poll is a decent result for Republicans. Chen, Emily Cochrane, Nicholas Fandos, Emma G. Lee, Ilana Marcus, Jaymin Patel, Charlie Smart, Isaac White and Christine Zhang. Produced by Michael Andre, Cam Baker, Neil Berg, Michael Beswetherick, Matthew Bloch, Irineo Cabreros, Andrew Chavez, Nate Cohn, Lindsey Rogers Cook, Alastair Coote, Annie Daniel, Saurabh Datar, Leo Dominguez, Tiff Fehr, Andrew Fischer, Martín González Gómez, Will Houp, Jasmine C. These are only estimates, and they may not be informed by reports from election officials. The Times publishes its own estimates for each candidate’s share of the final vote and the number of remaining votes, based on historic turnout data and reporting from results providers. Source: Election results and race calls are from The Associated Press. ![]() Potplayer windows 10 download3/16/2024 ![]() ![]() Version history available = Complete changelog on our site. Old versions available = Download old versions of the program. Portable version available = Download the portable version and you can just extract the files and run the program without installation. It may not contain the latest versions.ĭownload old versions = Free downloads of previous versions of the program.ĭownload 64-bit version = If you have a 64bit operating system you can download this version.ĭownload portable version = Portable/Standalone version meaning that no installation is required, just extract the files to a folder and run directly. Visit developers site = A link to the software developer site.ĭownload (mirror link) = A mirror link to the software download. Be careful when you install the software and disable addons that you don't want! 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Prayer against enemies workplace3/16/2024 ![]() ![]() So as I fast and pray for my work environment to change, I pray that as I call, You will enable me to see the unseen things within my workplace which I did not know I pray that Satan’s plans shall be exposed because greater is He that is in me than He that is in the world. You said that “this kind cannot come out except by prayer and fasting”. Heavenly Father, I speak Your divine Word concerning the spiritual warfare within my workplace. I pronounce blessings upon my work colleagues, staff and senior leaders and ask that You enable us to work effectively together, in Jesus Name, Amen. So, Lord even in the midst of spiritual warfare within the workplace, help me not to sin, but to keep my eyes fixed on You. Lord, help me to declare Christian Theology over my work place every day because Your Word says that we must hide Your Word in our heart so that we may not sin against You. I pray that “the favor of the Lord our God will rest upon us Lord establish the work of my hands” in Jesus Name, I pray, Amen. I cast down the spirit of manipulation and I pray that your presence will fill my working environment in Jesus Name. Say this one prayer and God will fight your battles. Silence your enemies and remove every enemy with this powerful prayer. Reveal to me, the strongholds, known and unknown within my workplace. You will have to say a prayer against witchcraft enemies, prayer for enemies attack, prayer for workplace enemies, prayer for victory over enemies, prayer for enemies at work, prayer for protection against evil enemies. Heavenly Father help me to watch and pray as Your Word instructs us. You will deliver me from the hand of the wicked and You will redeem me from the grip of the terrible”, Amen. ![]() So right in the midst of this spiritual warfare, I declare Your Word spoken to Jeremiah You will make me to this people a fortified bronze wall and they will fight against me, but they shall not prevail For You God are with me to save me and deliver me,” says the Lord. Heavenly Father, I am up against the activities of witchcraft and demonization in my workplace, but I know You do not sleep. So, Father I pray that you will cancel the plans of Satanic Kingdoms that wants to create havoc and discord amongst my colleagues, Amen. I declare Your Word that “where two or three come together in Your Name, there You are with us”. So Today, I ask that you enable me to work with excellence because I am working onto You. I acknowledge that this is a spirit that is not of You. I pray that You forgive me on how I treat others at work. Satan, the blood of Jesus be against You, Amen.ĭear Father, I pray and seek Your forgiveness of my sins. I come against pride, stubbornness, envy, anger, cursing, jealously in Jesus Name. So, God as I work alongside my colleagues, I pray against any strongholds they operate under them. I thank You that You are the one that orders my steps within my workplace. Your Word says, that the steps of a man are ordered by the Lord and He delights in his way. Dear Father, I thank you for this job that You have provided for me. ![]() Rumlog n g windows3/15/2024 ![]() ![]() Tom’s former portable logbook, RUMlog2Go and the classic desktop logger RUMlog will no longer receive new features, but do expect bug fixes as necessary. RUMlogNG2Go is available as a free upgrade to current users of RUMlog2Go using the Bundle upgrade feature or is available for $4.99 for new users. Bevor man mit dem Programm arbeiten kann, ist eine Logbuchdatei zu wählen und es sind die wichtigsten Einstellungen vorzunehmen. 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For help in data file migration, Tom provides a guide for users to follow.Īdditionally, the new portable version is not compatible with the database format used by classic desktop logger RUMlog. All Windows 10 editions are available when you select Windows 10, except for Enterprise edition. This new version of RUMlogNG2Go no longer supports log syncing via Dropbox due to depreciation of Dropbox APIs. Supporting the new database format used by the desktop logger RUMlogNG, v3.0 of this portable logger provides key features such as: WSJT-X broadcasts status and qso data via UDP, while a tcp/ip connection is used for CAT data. Therefore two different connections are established over the local network, even when both applications are running on the same computer. Thomas Lindner, DL2RUM, is happy to announce the availability of the portable version of his RUMlogNG logger, known as RUMlogNG2Go. Fragen, Meinungen, Anregungen und Spenden bitte an: . For JS8Call RUMlog uses the UDP API only. ![]() Mercury poisoning salmon3/15/2024 ![]() ![]() Canned salmons contained the lowest amounts of mercury and arsenic, while canned sardines were low in mercury but very high in arsenic (2.13 to 2.17 ppm).Īmong products that were Approved, ConsumerLab selected Top Picks for tuna, salmon and sardines. The same product had the second-highest concentration of arsenic (2.27 ppm). A tuna product that contained one of the lowest amounts of omega-3s also contained the highest concentration of mercury (0.41 ppm), which is just below the EPA's and FDA's recommended limit for avoiding fish (0.46 ppm). Canned and packaged tunas, particularly albacore tunas, were generally the most contaminated with mercury. In half the products, mercury and/or arsenic were discovered at levels suggesting that consumption should be limited: Those high in mercury should not be eaten more than once or twice per week, while those high only in arsenic should not be eaten more than once daily. Several products contained significantly lower amounts of DHA and EPA than claimed on the label. ![]() In comparison, canned and packaged tuna provided as little as 45 mg to about 440 mg of DHA and EPA, with the exception of one albacore tuna product that contained 1,294 mg of DHA and EPA per serving. Sardines provided about 1,600 mg to 1,800 mg of DHA and EPA per 85 gram serving, while salmon provided 400 mg to 700 mg per 56 gram serving. The tests showed that, based on recommended serving sizes, sardines and salmon contained much higher amounts of omega-3 fatty acids than tuna. ConsumerLab also tested the oil in products to determine if it was fresh or rancid. To find out, ConsumerLab purchased and tested popular canned and packaged tuna, salmon and sardines sold in the U.S., checking each for the omega-3 fatty acids DHA, EPA and DPA, as well as omega-7 fatty acids, and for contamination with mercury, arsenic, lead, and cadmium. So which products on the market provide the highest amounts of omega-3s with the least contamination? White Plains, New York, JCanned and packaged tuna, salmon and sardines can be an excellent source of omega-3 fatty acids, but some may also be contaminated with toxic heavy metals such as mercury and arsenic. ![]() Download shareit apk app for android3/15/2024 ![]() ![]() You can download and install official Shareit apk from Google Play Store for free. Share it apk for Android is the most popular file sharing app in Play Store. 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